The IT channel faces a reckoning in 2026 as artificial intelligence reshapes partner ecosystems, spending patterns, and the value proposition of distribution – and distributors.

While channel partners are navigating the twin pressures of AI hype and market consolidation, vendors are retooling partner programs to meet growing scale requirements, forcing smaller VARs and MSPs to either expand their service capabilities or risk being squeezed out. Meanwhile, distributors like Arrow are positioning themselves as "agents of change," pushing partners beyond boxes-and-outcomes rhetoric to focus on addressing customer needs. 

Here's what we do know: The global spending spree on AI will continue, but racing to adopt AI doesn't necessarily give partners a competitive advantage. Industry research shows that automation without organizational change delivers hollow productivity gains and a lot of time sunk into rework, error correction, and output verification. 

That said, the "AI tax" creates openings for channel partners to bridge the gap between deployment and genuine business value. If they can offer the integration, governance, and change management businesses need, partners can turn the initial burst of speed AI offers into a sustained competitive advantage.

Here's a sampling of our ongoing reporting on the trends and tribulations that are shaping the channel this year: